Covid Tracker: India's case count could reach 50,000 in eight days, given the slow progression

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in India has risen 15 per cent over the past two days to 26,917, data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) last night shows. It's the same rate of increase as in the previous 48 hours, when the number of cases registered increased to 20,471 by 15 per cent. While India's coronavirus trajectory has tapered in recent weeks, it remains steeper compared to Asian peers like Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

Singapore, which historically had a much thinner path than most other countries, has seen a revived surge of new infections that has steeped its curve. The trajectories of most Asian countries, including India, have so far been flatter compared with Western nations where the virus claimed more lives.

The list of cases in India is now nearly twice what it was ten days ago. This is a much slower pace than in early April, when cases doubled every four days. Deaths saw a slower increase too. India's covid-19 death toll as of last night was 826, nearly double what it was 11 days earlier. Even, the number of instances could increase to 50,000 in the next eight days at the current pace of accelerated growth, and strain an already poor health care system.

According to the health ministry update on Sunday evening, at 6,229, Maharashtra leads in terms of number of active cases. Active cases remove deaths from the list of reported cases and recoveries.

Gujarat has the second most active cases (2,656), then Madhya Pradesh (1,787). Delhi has the fourth-highest number of active cases at 1,702 active cases followed by Rajasthan (1,557). The top five states together represent 69% of active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 91% of all cases.

Nationally, as of yesterday evening the active count of cases was 20,177. These are early days yet and can change the state-wise distribution in the days ahead. State-wide testing has been sporadic and as research picks up, more reports may come to light in states where recorded cases have so far been small.